We study the predictability of equity risk premiums for UK equity indexes, in particular whether stylized facts found for the US stock market also apply to the UK market. We compare the performance of economic and technical indicators with a particular focus on the time-varying nature of...

A number of recent studies have found evidence of a nonlinear term structure relationship in the U.S. This paper extends earlier work and develops tests of the null hypothesis of no cointegration that allow for linear or asymmetric (or symmetric) threshold cointegration under the alternative...

We investigate the order of integration of aggregate wage, price and productivity measures for the USA. Our investigation differs from previous studies as we employ recently developed tests that allow, under the alternative hypothesis, for structural change between periods in which the data are...

Conventional Dickey-Fuller unit root tests have been generalized to allow for nonlinearity under the alternative hypothesis by Enders and Granger [Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, 16 (1998) 304] (EG) and Leybourne, Newbold and Vougas [Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19 (1998) 83]...

Purpose – A misplaced reliance on value at risk (VaR) has been focused on in the media as one of the main reasons for the current financial crisis, and the recently published Turner Review by the UK Financial Services Authority concurs. The purpose of this paper is to present an introductory...

Recently developed methodology to allow the possibility of a stochastic unit root process as an alternative to a fixed parameter unit root model is applied to six national indices of stock market prices. Evidence supporting the stochastic unit root hypothesis is found. However, the...