Can economists forecast the direction of economic growth? Casual observation indicates that individual economists make poor predictions of economic growth and that their forecasts are highly correlated. This paper examines the loss of information resulting from correlation and develops a method...

This paper is the first to study the effect of financial restatement on bank loan contracting. Compared with loans initiated before restatement, loans initiated after restatement have significantly higher spreads, shorter maturities, higher likelihood of being secured, and more covenant...

Does corporate culture matter? Can differences in corporate culture explain why similar firms diverge with one succeeding and the other failing? To answer these questions, we use a novel survey and interview-based analysis of 1,348 North American firms. Over half of senior executives believe...

This paper quantifies the “human costs of bankruptcy” by estimating employee wage losses induced by the bankruptcy filing of employers using employee-employer matched data from the U.S. Census Bureau's LEHD program. We find that employee wages begin to deteriorate one year prior to...

Using a novel dataset of accounting and market information that spans most publicly traded firms over the last century, we show that government deficit financing crowds out nonfinancial corporate debt financing and investment. Specifically, an increase in the supply of treasury debt is...

We provide insights into earnings quality from a survey of 169 CFOs of public companies and in-depth interviews of 12 CFOs and two standard setters. CFOs believe that (i) above all, high-quality earnings are sustainable and repeatable; specific characteristics include consistent reporting...

The final working paper version: 'http://ssrn.com/abstract=2103384' http://ssrn.com/abstract=2103384.Presentation slides: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2347428" http://ssrn.com/abstract=2347428.We provide insights into earnings quality from a survey of 169 CFOs of public companies and in-depth...

Employees' annual earnings fall by 13% the year their firm files for bankruptcy, and the present value of lost earnings from bankruptcy to six years following bankruptcy is 87% of pre-bankruptcy annual earnings. More worker earnings are lost in thin labor markets and among small firms. Ex ante...

We use the COVID shock to study the direct and interactive effects of several forms of corporate flexibility on short- and long-term real business plans. We find that i) workplace flexibility, namely the ability for employees to work remotely, plays a central role in determining firms’...

This document contains supplemental materials for my AFA address entitled: “Presidential Address: Corporate Finance and Reality” (2022). The address paper provides updated data from and analysis of CFO surveys about corporate investment, capital structure, payout, planning, and other...