Ben-David, Itzhak; Graham, John R. - In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics 128 (2013) 4, pp. 1547-1584
Using a unique 10-year panel that includes more than 13,300 expected stock market return probability distributions, we find that executives are severely miscalibrated, producing distributions that are too narrow: realized market returns are within the executives' 80% confidence intervals only...