In this paper we propose a simple one-factor quantile regression model based on realized volatility to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR). The model only uses daily realized volatility as input and thus simplifies estimation substantially compared with most other methodologies currently used to...

We extend the Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970, 1971) notion of increasing risk to families of random variables and in this way link their approach to the concept of stochastic processes which are increasing in the convex order. These processes have been introduced in seminal work by Strassen...

Using the popular Schwartz 97 two-factor approach, we study future contracts written on fresh farmed salmon, which have been actively traded at the Fish Pool Market in Norway since 2006. This approach features a stochastic convenience yield for the salmon spot price. We connect this approach...

For fixed maturity, under the no-arbitrage assumption, futures prices should follow a martingale with respect to the trading time, at least under the pricing measure. Therefore, a prominent display of trading time seasonality under the physical measure raises warning signs and can only occur by...

We discuss the application of gradient methods to calibrate mean reverting stochastic volatility models. For this we use formulas based on Girsanov transformations as well as a modification of the Bismut-Elworthy formula to compute the derivatives of certain option prices with respect to the...

We consider a continuous time market model, in which agents influence asset prices. The agents are assumed to be rational and maximizing expected utility from terminal wealth. They share the same utility function but are allowed to possess different levels of information. Technically our model...