We take as a starting point the existence of a joint distribution implied by different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, all of which are potentially misspecified. Our objective is to compare "true" joint distributions with ones generated by given DSGEs. This is accomplished...

This paper proposes an approach for estimating the uncertainty associated with model-based macroeconomic forecasts. We argue that estimated forecast intervals should account for the uncertainty arising from selecting the specification of an empirical forecasting model from the sample data. To...

A new method for testing linear restrictions in linear regression models is suggested. It allows to validate the linear restriction, up to a specified approximation error and with a specified error probability. The test relies on asymptotic normality of the test statistic, and therefore...

In market microstructure theory the effect of time between consecutive transactions and trade volume on transaction price changes of exchange traded shares and options has been considered (e.g. Diamond and Verecchia (1987) and Easley and O'Hara (1987)). The goal of this paper is to investigate...

In this paper, we add to the literature on the assessment of how well RBC simulated data reproduce the dynamic features of historical data. In particular, we evaluate a variety of new Keynesian DSGE models, including the standard sticky price model discussed in Calvo (1983), the sticky price...

In this paper we construct output gap and inflation predictions using a variety of DSGE sticky price models. Predictive density accuracy tests related to the test discussed in Corradi and Swanson (2005a) as well as predictive accuracy tests due to Diebold and Mariano (1995) andWest (1996) are...

In this paper we take an agnostic view of the Phillips curve debate, and carry out an empirical investigation of the relative and absolute efficacy of Calvo sticky price (SP), sticky information (SI), and sticky price with indexation models (SPI), with emphasis on their ability to mimic...

Innovations, be they radical new products or technology improvements are widely recognized as a key factor of economic growth. To identify the factors triggering innovative activities is a main concern for economic theory and empirical analysis. As the number of hypotheses is large, the process...

The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection crite- rion measures economic exante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection bias nor to the risk of...

This dissertation consists of five independent projects. In each project, a novelstatistical method was developed to address a practical problem encountered in genomiccontexts. For example, we considered testing for constant nonparametric effectsin a general semiparametric regression model in...