In traditional tests of forecast rationality, price forecasts are usually differenced to obtain stationarity. However, this data transformation may ignore important long-run information contained in forecasted price levels. Here, the concept of forecast consistency is paired with rationality...

Options with different maturities can be used to generate an implied forward volatility, a volatility forecast for non-overlapping future time intervals. Using five commodities with varying characteristics, we find that the implied forward volatility dominates forecasts based on historical...

Increasingly feedlots are managing cattle as individual animals rather than on a pen level basis. As such it is possible to predict an optimal marketing date for each animal. This analysis evaluates the keep-or-sell decision at reimplant time for feedlots cattle approximately 80 days prior to...

The costs of corn- and soybean-based feeds compose a substantial proportion of the variable costs faced by both mainstream and emergent confined livestock producers. This research develops a method to provide a joint distribution of prices of corn and soybean meal at a future time. Black's 1976...

Endogenous variables in structural models of agricultural commodity markets are typically treated as stationary. Yet, tests for unit roots have rather frequently implied that commodity prices are not stationary. This seeming inconsistency is investigated by focusing on alternative specifications...

This study examines hedging strategies for commodity processors generally and soybean crushers specifically. Processors require hedging strategies built around processing multiple batches each year. Each batch requires the purchase of inputs, transformation of inputs into outputs, and sale of...

Years of research have been dedicated to determining the best time for producers to sell their commodities. Researchers have developed basis models, market efficiency tests, hedging/risk models, price forecasting models, and many other models in an attempt to help producers. There is a vast...