Standard RBC models predict forecastable movements in output, consumption and hours that differ from those obtained from a VAR estimated on US data. The paper investigates whether introducing bounded rationality and learning generates business cycles properties which are empirically plausible....

This paper asks the question of whether the newly available TIPS yields data can help us achieve a better understanding of the real term structure and the inflation expectations. The yield differential between TIPS and comparable nominal coupon securities is not a direct measure of inflation...

This paper proposes a method for estimating the probability density of a variable of interest in the presence of model ambiguity. In the first step, each candidate parametric model is estimated minimizing the Kullback-Leibler "distance" (KLD) from a reference nonparametric density estimate....

We study the the emergence of multiple equilibria in models with capital and bonds under various monetary and fiscal policies. We show that the presence of capital is indeed another independent source of local and global multiplicites, even under active policies that yield local determinacy. We...

This paper studies the impact of monetary policy transparency on economic stability, when economic agents are boundedly rational. I first consider a simple class of microfunded general equilibrium models with nominal rigidities and learning. Under a transparent monetary regime, market...

"This paper proposes a method for predicting the probability density of a variable of interest in the presence of model ambiguity. In the first step, each candidate parametric model is estimated minimizing the Kullback-Leibler 'distance' (KLD) from a reference nonparametric density estimate....