Three methods have been developed by the authors for solving optimal experimentation problems. David Kendrick (1981, 2002, Ch.10) uses quadratic approximation of the value function and linear approximation of the equation of motion to simulate general optimal experimentation (active learning)...

This paper examines the effect on economic growth and welfare of the access to external financing which results in technological transfers to a developing country from the rest of the world. We consider a two-sector stochastic growth model and compute optimal accumulation mechanisms in the...

In this paper we ask whether policies targeting a reduction in crime rates through changes in education outcomes can be considered an effective and cost-viable alternative to interventions based on harsher punishment alone. In particular we study the effect of subsidizing high school completion....

We present an optimal (Ramsey) social security policy analysis in the presence of demographic uncertainties and incomplete markets. According to our findings, a social security system is an efficient instrument for intergenerational risk-sharing. When compared with government debt, a...

If strong and persistent misalignments of the exchange rate are caused by non-fundamental influences, such that a return to equilibrium is hampered by a coordination failure among fundamentals-based traders, then central bank intervention may act as a coordinating signal, encouraging stabilizing...

Since it burst onto the scene of mainstream monetary economics, the New Neo-Classical Phillips Curve has been the focus of two important empirical debates. First, to what extent properly measured marginal costs affect inflation dynamics. Second, to what extent purely forward looking inflation...

We examine out of sample predictive power of real time monetary models with nonlinear adjustment in forecast errors for the Pound Sterling/US Dollar exchange rates. Real time revisions of U.K. and U.S. monetary aggregates and output are significant. By studying recursive out of sample forecast...

In this paper, we study the effect of education on economic growth. In particular, we want to show that education can cause some nonlinearities in the human capital accumulation process. These nonlinearities may affect the economic growth path. In the first part of this work, we will provide a...

In this paper we use a Dynamic Factor model to retrieve vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. A stochastic simulation experiment is then used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events a®ecting a number of East Asian countries...

In a traditional mean-variance approach a portfolio is represented by the allocation vector optimized in terms of expected returns and variances. Basic assumption is that the allocation vector may only be the driver of a portfolio risk-reward trade-off, while all constituent assets are fully...