This article explores a hypothesis about the take-off in inflation in the early 1970s. According to the expectations trap hypothesis, the Fed was driven to high money growth by a fear of violating the expectations of high inflation that existed at the time. The authors argue that this hypothesis...

The U.S. economy just completed another stellar year, marked by strong growth and declining inflation. Indeed, the low inflation of recent years has been instrumental in reinvigorating the U.S. economy, helping unleash a new vibrancy and confidence across the country. However, the shock wave...

Policymakers and economic analysts have recently been concerned about potential inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy. Various economic statistics show the amount of unused productive resources has been diminishing. For example, the civilian unemployment rate has decreased and the capacity...

In remarks made before the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's 1996 symposium, Achieving Price Stability, Mr. King discussed how quickly a central bank should reduce inflation to its desired level following an inflationary episode. He argued that a central bank is unlikely to wish to move...

Since the invention of money, pressure to finance government debt and deficits, directly or indirectly, has been the single most important driver of inflation. It is not at all clear, however, that improved fiscal policy has been the main driver of the recent disinflation. ; Whatever the...

With inflation in the United States and elsewhere low by historical standards, the question of what inflation rate policymakers should aim for has moved front and center. Knowing what inflation rate to aim for is critically important for maximizing the economic well-being of the public. ; Most...

The Federal Reserve has made significant progress toward price stability over the last two decades. The annual inflation rate has declined from 13 percent in the early 1980s to roughly 2 percent today. But, to be sure, the current low-inflation environment has come at a price. One key cost of...