effects of expanding exports to increase support for the incumbent's party, and job insecurity from import competition to … diminish such support. Our national-level models show for the first time that increasing imports are associated with decreasing … incumbent vote shares, and increasing exports correlate with increasing vote shares for incumbents. These effects are large and …

first time that increasing imports (exports) are associated with decreasing (increasing) presidential incumbent vote shares … insecurity from import competition in manufacturing diminishes political support for incumbents. We construct novel measures of …