Two evaluative criteria for probabilistic forecasting performance, consistency with the axioms of probability theory and external correspondence with the events that ultimately occur, are distinguished. The mean probability, or Brier score (), is the scoring rule most commonly used to quantify...

This paper considers the relationship among the inferential style characterizing a society, its litigation system, and other aspects of its culture. Differences between common law and Continental systems of litigation are associated with a stronger individualistic tendency in Anglo-American...

Highly knowledgeable people often fail to achieve highly accurate judgments, a phenomenon sometimes called the ''processperformance paradox.'' The present research tested for this paradox in foreign exchange (FX) rate forecasting. Forty professional and 57 sophisticated amateur forecasters made...