In this paper we examine the effectiveness in controlling long-run inflation of feedback rules for monetary policy that link changes in a short-term interest rate to an intermediate target for either nominal GDP or M2. We conclude that a rule aimed at controlling the growth rate of nominal GDP...

We develop a simple, quantitative model of the U.S. economy to demonstrate how an "inflation scare " may occur when the Federal Reserve lacks full credibility. In particular, we show that the long-term nominal interest rate may undergo a sudden increase if an adverse movement in the inflation...

Remarks at Fordham University's Gabelli School of Business, Bronx, New York.

Remarks before the Bronx Chamber of Commerce at the New York Botanical Garden, Bronx, New York.

Remarks at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations, New York City.

Under rational expectations, monetary policy is generally highly effective in stabilizing the economy. Aggregate demand management operates through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: Anticipated movements in future short-term interest rates control current demand. This paper...