A nonparametric version of the Final Prediction Error (FPE) is proposed for lag selection in nonlinear autoregressive time series. We derive its consistency for both local constant and local linear estimators using a derived optimal bandwidth. Further asymptotic analysis suggests a greater...

Pegging the renminbi (RMB) to the US dollar since 1994 has characterised China’s exchange rate policy, under either a fixed peg or appreciating crawling peg. The current policy, announced in June 2010, of ‘floating with reference to a basket’ has now in April 2015 made the RMB 19 per cent...

This staff report on Iraq’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic policies and development. Risks to the macroeconomic outlook remain high. The risks can translate into lower oil revenues, deterioration in the fiscal position, pressures to use Central Bank of Iraq reserves for...

The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger emphasis on multilateral surveillance, macro-financial linkages, and the implications of...

This paper surveys the foreign exchange markets, money and secondary government security markets, and stock exchanges in 107 smaller economy countries. The underdevelopment of these markets impedes risk transfer, monetary policy, corporate financing, and the capacity to absorb capital inflows....

This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy...

This paper explores the changes in the daily seasonality of the Romanian foreign market from January 2005 to February 2010. Our investigation employs data from the prices in the Romanian national currency, of the two main currencies used in the financial transactions: euro and US dollar. For the...

This research represents some thoughts on the accurate characterization of the stock market indexes trends in the conditions of the nonlinear capital flows at the stock exchanges in the global capital markets. We make our original research proposal that the nonlinear capital flows in the process...

Central America has received growing attention as a region that is integrating successfully into the global economy. This paper examines—among other things—the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of the Free Trade Agreement with the United States (CAFTA-DR), noting that the...

We examine the relationship between exchange-rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994-1998. We find that over 50% of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange-rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange-rate exposure benefit from a depreciation...