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The paper assesses the extent to which the Group of Seven (G7) has been successful in its management of major currencies since the 1970s. Using an event-study approach, the paper finds evidence that the G7 has been overall effective in moving the U.S. dollar, yen and euro in the intended...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005712534
A major concern surrounding European Monetary Union is that output fluctuations of member countries may become more volatile under a common currency because they will have increased sensitivity to foreign business cycles. This article analyzes the link between exchange rate regimes and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005713071
This paper presents a two-country DSGE model with state-dependent pricing as in Dotsey, King, and Wolman (1999) in … time-dependent pricing. In addition, the predictions of the state-dependent pricing model match the business-cycle moments … better than the predictions of the time-dependent pricing model when driven by monetary policy shocks. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008611002
Recent papers have argued that one implication of globalization is that domestic inflation rates may have now become more a function of "global," rather than domestic, economic conditions, as postulated by closed-economy Phillips curves. This paper aims to assess the empirical importance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005009939
This article argues that high interest rates abroad have substantially depressed private investment in most foreign members of the Group of Seven during the 1990s. Business investment has been especially hard hit and housing construction disrupted, although the effect on housing has been offset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008456480
We systematically examine the comparative predictive performance of a number of alternative linear and non-linear models for stock and bond returns in the G7 countries. Besides Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) regime switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352830
The Social Security systems of the G7 countries were established in an era when populations were young and the number of contributors far outweighed the number of beneficiaries. Now, for each beneficiary there are fewer contributors, and this downward trend is projected to accelerate. To...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352896
In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of the U.S. Treasury Department forecasts of real growth and inflation from 1976 to 1990 for the Group of Seven (G-7) economies. The accuracy of these forecasts is measured against the standard of actual real world growth and inflation as subsequently...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360626
This paper reports the results of a project to estimate and test the stability properties of conventional equations relating real imports and exports of goods and services for the G-7 countries to their incomes and relative prices. We begin by estimating cointegration vectors and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498785
The standard life-cycle model of consumption behavior predicts that a household's age will influence its saving behavior. Moreover, simple national accounting identities reveal that a country's current account balance reflects its savings-investment imbalance. Thus, differences in national...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005514185