a speech at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China

To get a more accurate picture of China’s economy, economists examine other measures of activity that closely track growth but are less prone to political interference than output data. Industrial electricity consumption, a major production input, serves as such a proxy.

Significant store-of-value demand for housing suggests a bubble that could burst, especially when both the household income growth rate and the savings rate start to decline and capital controls in China start to relax.

"In contemplating China, we need to look past carefully crafted images and deepen our understanding of her national interest. Failure to do so will be perilous." ; Remarks to a Working Dinner Sponsored by the Progress & Freedom Foundation, Aspen, Colorado, August 18, 2008.

The authors use a growth accounting framework to examine growth of the rapidly developing Chinese economy. Their findings support the view that, although feasible in the intermediate term, China's recent pattern of extensive growth is not sustainable in the long run. The authors believe that...

China did not succumb to the Asian crisis of 1997-99, despite two apparent sources of vulnerability: a weak financial system and increased export competition from the Asian crisis economies. This article argues that both sources of vulnerability were more apparent than real. China's experience...

We explore whether increases in China’s exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies. We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though often not significantly so), even after controlling for the effects...

a speech at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China