In this paper I estimate income and price elasticities of donations to six different charitable causes to test the assumption that charity is a homogeneous good. In the US, charitable donations can be deducted from taxable income. This has long been recognized as producing a price, or taxprice,...

We define a continuous index of strategic stability,p.stability, which requires equilibrium to be the unique outcome compatible with common knowledge of rationality and common knowledge of p.beliefs (beliefs that put probability at least p on the equilibrium profile). We show that every...

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path...

We show how to improve the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include au-toregressive terms by estimating the models on ‘lightly-revised’data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. Forecast accuracy is improved by reorganizing the data vintages employed in the...

In an incentivized experiment we identify a powerful and ubiquitous bias: individuals regard their own characteristics and choices as more common than is the case. We establish this "false consensus" bias in terms of happiness, political stance, mobile phone brand and on the attitude to...

The subjective expected utility (SEU) criterion is formulated for a particular four-person “laboratory game” that a Bayesian rational decision maker plays with Nature, Chance, and an Experimenter who influences what quantum behaviour is observable by choosing an orthonormal basis in a...

We characterise profit-maximising operating strategies, over some time horizon, for an energy store which is trading in an arbitrage market. Our theory allows for leakage, operating inefficiencies and general cost functions. In the special case where the operating cost of a store depends only on...

We know that instrumental variable (IV) estimates a causal effect if the instrument satisfies a monotonicity condition. When this condition is not satisfied, we only know that IV estimates the difference between the effect of the treatment in two groups. This difference could be a very...

The 1870-1913 period marked the birth of the first era of trade globalization. How did this tremendous increase in trade affect economic development? This work isolates a causality channel by exploiting the fact that the steamship produced an asymmetric change in trade distances among countries....

Online platforms provide an opportunity for individuals to fundraise for their favourite charities and charitable causes. In recent years, individual charity fundraising through these platforms has become a mass activity. Using JustGiving, the UK’s biggest charity fundraising platform, 21...