The efficient characterization of nonlinear systems is an important goal of vibration and model testing. The authors build a nonlinear system model based on the acceleration time series response of a single input, multiple output system. A series of local linear models are used as a template to...

1991 was continued rapid growth for the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) as it broadened its interdisciplinary research into the organization, evolution and operation of complex systems and sought deeply the principles underlying their dynamic behavior. Research on complex systems--the focus of work at...

Electricity markets in the United States are evolving. Accurate wind power forecasts are beneficial for wind plant operators, utility operators, and utility customers. An accurate forecast allows grid operators to schedule economically efficient generation to meet the demand of electrical...

The International Petroleum Statistics Report is a monthly publication that provides current international oil data. This report is published for the use of Members of Congress, Federal agencies, State agencies, industry, and the general public. The International Petroleum Statistics Report...

The author describes a novel time-series analysis technique called maximum likelihood continuity mapping (MALCOM), and focuses on one application of MALCOM: detecting fraud in medical insurance claims. Given a training data set composed of typical sequences, MALCOM creates a stochastic model of...

This paper examines the transmission of equity returns and volatility among Asian equity markets and investigates the differences that exist in this regard between the developed and emerging markets. Three developed markets (Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore) and six emerging markets (Indonesia,...

This paper examines the impact of natural disasters on the Australian equity market. The data set employed consists of daily price and accumulation returns over the period 31 December 1982 to 1 January 2002 for the All Ordinaries Index (AOI) and a record of forty-two severe storms, floods,...

A popular theory of markets is that they are efficient: all available information is deemed to provide an accurate valuation of an asset at any time. In this paper, we consider how the content of market-related news articles contributes to such information. Specifically, we mine news articles...

The efficient market hypothesis states that the market incorporates all available information to provide an accurate valuation of the asset at any given time. However, most models for forecasting the return or volatility of assets completely disregard the arrival of asset specific news (i.e.,...

This study aims to investigate whether the phenomena found by Shnoll et al. when applying histogrampattern analysis techniques to stochastic processes from chemistry and physics are also present infinancial time series, particularly exchange rate and index data. The phenomena are related to...