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Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey

Leigh, Daniel - 2002

Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic indicators for inflation and real output growth in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401315

The Impact of Public Capital, Human Capital, and Knowledgeon Aggregate Output

Joutz, Frederick L. - 2008

This paper investigates the impact of public capital on private sector output by testing and estimating an aggregate … production function for the U.S. economy over the postwar period augmented to include the stock of public capital as an … significant long run effect of public capital, private capital, skilladjusted labor, and technology/ knowledge on private sector …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401381

Empirical Modeling of Contagion : A Review of Methodologies

Dungey, Mardi - 2004

The existing literature suggests a number of alternative methods to test for the presence of contagion during financial market crises. This paper reviews those methods and shows how they are related in a unified framework. A number of extensions are also suggested that allow for multivariate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401432

Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia

Konuki, Tetsuya - 2008

This paper estimates potential output and the output gap for Slovakia which enjoyed rapid growth with few signs of economic overheating in recent years. It applies two broad sets of approaches: conventional methods, represented by a statistical method and a production function approach; and a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401465

Long-Run Productivity Shifts and Cyclical Fluctuations : Evidence for Italy

Sgherri, Silvia - 2005

Using unobserved stochastic components and Kalman filter techniques, the paper assesses the relative importance of transitory and permanent shifts in Italian real GDP within a production function framework. Evidence suggests that the increase in hours worked that has accompanied pension and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401506

Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan : Past Performance and Future Prospects

Zettelmeyer, Jeromin - 1998

resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively … favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401603

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Phillips, Steven - 2001

“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401615

Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? : The Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows

Ilahi, Nadeem - 2008

This paper tests the association between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries'' financial and remittance outflows and regional growth in the Middle East. The findings, based on 35-year panel data, indicate that growth rates of real GDP, private consumption and private investment in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401633

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Timmermann, Allan - 2006

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401878

Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Mazumder, Sandeep - 2011

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399270