Lagged variables are often used as instruments when the generalized method of moments (GMM) is applied to time series data. We show that if these variables follow noncausal autoregressive processes, their lags are not valid instruments and the GMM estimator is inconsistent. Moreover, in this...

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure for noncausal autoregressive (AR) models. Specifically, we derive the joint posterior density of the past and future errors and the parameters, which gives posterior predictive densities as a byproduct. We show that the...

In this paper, we incorporate time-varying mixing probabilities into univariate and bivariate mixture multiplicative error models. Switching between the regimes is governed by an observable predetermined variable. The models are applicable to positive-valued time series, and are particularly...

We argue that a transaction tax is likely to amplify, not dampen, volatility in the foreign exchange markets. Our argument stems from the decentralised trading practice and the presumable discrepancy between 'informed' and 'uninformed' traders' valuations. Since informed traders' valuations are...

The use of asymptotic critical values in stationarity tests against the alternative of a unit root process is known to lead to over-rejections in finite samples when the considered process is stationary but highly persistent. We claim that, in recent parametric tests, this is caused by...

In this paper we study new nonlinear GARCH models mainly designed for time series with highly persistent volatility. For such series, conventional GARCH models have often proved unsatisfactory because they tend to exaggerate volatility persistence and exhibit poor forecasting ability. Our main...

Unit root tests are considered for time series which have a level shift at a known point in time. The shift can have a very general nonlinear form, and additional deterministic mean and trend terms are allowed for. Prior to the tests, the deterministic parts and other nuisance parameters of the...

According to several empirical studies, US inflation and nominal interest rates, as well as the real interest rate, can be described as unit root processes. These results imply that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move one-for-one in the long run, which is not consistent...

We develop a similarity-based structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model using the similar clusters of data relevant for the prevailing initial macroeconomic conditions of interest. Our computationally attractive simple approach enables us to uncover time-varying effects of structural...