This paper motivates and develops a nonlinear extension of the Vector Autoregressive model which we call the Vector Floor and Ceiling model. Bayesian and classical methods for estimation and testing are developed and compared in the context of an application involving U.S. macroeconomic data. In...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian model averaging. Practical methods for implementing Bayesian model averaging with factor models are described. These methods involve algorithms that simulate from the space defined by all possible...

Many structural break and regime-switching models have been used with macroeconomic and financial data. In this paper, we develop an extremely flexible parametric model that accommodates virtually any of these specifications—and does so in a simple way that allows for straightforward Bayesian...

This paper motivates and develops a nonlinear extension of the Vector Autoregressive model which we call the Vector Floor and Ceiling model. Bayesian and classical methods for estimation and testing are developed and compared in the context of an application involving U.S. macroeconomic data. In...