This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. The authors show that the...

The literature on optimal monetary policy in New Keynesian models under both commitment and discretion usually solves for the optimal allocations that are consistent with a rational expectations market equilibrium, but it does not study whether the policy can be implemented given the available...

The authors investigate the extent to which monetary policy can enhance the functioning of the private credit system. Specifically, they characterize the optimal return on money in the presence of credit arrangements. There is a dual role for credit: It allows buyers to trade without fiat money...

Providing efficiency and cost-savings over paper payments (cash and checks), commercial payment cards are among the fastest growing card segments in recent years. Today, they account for nearly one in every five dollars spent using general-purpose payment cards. And since business and government...

On April 8-9, 2010, the Payment Cards Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia hosted a conference that brought together leaders in the prepaid card industry, regulators, consumer groups, law enforcement agents, and industry researchers to discuss the economics of prepaid cards and the...

Each year, millions of financially distressed consumers in the U.S. face a difficult choice among the debt relief options available to them. This paper describes the options available to borrowers who seek assistance in managing their debts and discusses the information and incentive problems...

Several of the nation’s largest payment-card-issuing banks are working with public transit agencies to enable consumers to pay fares by using payment cards, and more such partnerships may be on the horizon. On April 23, 2009, the Payment Cards Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia...

The authors examine portage sites in the U.S. South, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest, including those on the fall line, a geomorphological feature in the southeastern U.S. marking the final rapids on rivers before the ocean. Historically, waterborne transport of goods required portage around the falls...

The authors study a dynamic, decentralized lemons market with one-time entry and characterize its set of non-stationary equilibria. This framework offers a theory of how a market suffering from adverse selection recovers over time endogenously; given an initial fraction of lemons, the model...

This paper estimates the value of the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) subsidy. Using data from the merger boom of 1991-2004, the authors find that banking organizations were willing to pay an added premium for mergers that would put them over the asset sizes that are commonly viewed as the thresholds for...