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In this paper we model the U.S. economy parsimoniously in an a theoretic state space representation. We use monthly data for thirteen macroeconomic variables. We treat the federal deficit as a proxy for fiscal policy and the fed funds rate as a proxy for monetary policy and use each of them as...
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forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal …
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Comparative analysis of economic structure and forecasts generated from simultaneous equation, VAR and autoregressive models based on quarterly series from 1966:1 to 2007:3 of UK to those from the stochastic general equilibrium models has provided insights into objective and subjective...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009352791
The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that … frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421234
relations existing between them, the central problem is the selection of strategic goals. Forecasting is the necessary precursor … forecasting are used nowadays. Econometric models can be used successfully for predicting the future development of a phenomenon …
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, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to …
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