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If multivariate dynamic models are to be used to guide decision-making, it is important that it be possible to provide probability assessments of their results. Bayesian VAR models in the existing literature have not commonly (in fact, not at all as far as we know) been presented with error...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005721646
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Empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these relationships are highly significant, but their theoretical motivations suggest that they may not be stable over time. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726595
This paper considers the problem of forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian model averaging. Practical … apply these methods to the problem of forecasting GDP and inflation using quarterly U.S. data on 162 time series. Our … analysis indicates that models containing factors do outperform autoregressive models in forecasting both GDP and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726664
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In this paper we model the U.S. economy parsimoniously in an a theoretic state space representation. We use monthly data for thirteen macroeconomic variables. We treat the federal deficit as a proxy for fiscal policy and the fed funds rate as a proxy for monetary policy and use each of them as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352818
The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that … frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421234
relations existing between them, the central problem is the selection of strategic goals. Forecasting is the necessary precursor … forecasting are used nowadays. Econometric models can be used successfully for predicting the future development of a phenomenon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009646197
, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647399