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Practice Prize Article—: A Multichannel, Multiregion Sales Forecasting Model and Decision Support System for Consumer Packaged Goods

Divakar, Suresh; Ratchford, Brian T.; Shankar, Venkatesh - In: Marketing Science 24 (2005) 3, pp. 334-350

We discuss the development and implementation of , a sales forecasting model, by pack size, category, channel, region …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008787812

Does the macroeconomy predict U.K. asset returns in a nonlinear fashion? comprehensive out-of-sample evidence

Guidolin, Massimo; Hyde, Stuart; McMillan, David; Ono, … - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2010

We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008690986

Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements

Herbst, Edward; Schorfheide, Frank - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2011

This paper develops and applies tools to assess multivariate aspects of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. The authors construct posterior predictive checks to evaluate the calibration...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008799649

On comparing information in forecasts from econometric models: a comment on Fair and Shiller

Diebold, Francis X. - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 1993

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005389551

P* revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity.

Orphanides, Athanasios; Porter, Richard - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1998

This paper implements recursive techniques to estimate the equilibrium level of M2 velocity and to forecast inflation using the P* model. The recursive estimates of equilibrium velocity are obtained by applying regression trees and least squares methods to a standard representation of M2 demand,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393915

How does the market interpret analysts' long-term growth forecasts?

Sharpe, Steven A. - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2002

This paper examines the effect of inflation on stock valuations and expected long-run returns. Ex ante estimates of expected long-run returns are constructed by incorporating analysts' earnings forecasts into a variant of the Campbell-Shiller dividend-price ratio model. The negative relation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005393967

Forecasting Brazilian output in the presence of breaks: a comparison of linear and nonlinear models

Chauvet, Marcelle; Lima, Elcyon C.R.; Vasquez, Brisne - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - 2002

This paper compares the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models under the presence of structural breaks … probabilities of recessions are used to analyze the Brazilian business cycle. The ability of each model in forecasting out …-of-sample the growth rates of GDP is examined. The forecasting ability of the two models is also compared with linear specifications …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005401964

Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models

Waggoner, Daniel F.; Zha, Tao - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - 1998

In the existing literature, conditional forecasts in the vector autoregressive (VAR) framework have not been commonly presented with probability distributions or error bands. This paper develops Bayesian methods for computing such distributions or bands. It broadens the class of conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005402042

Forecasting money demand with econometric models

Swamy, P.A.V.B; Kennickell, A.B.; Muehlen, P. von zur - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1986

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005402414

Reducing uncertainty in short-term projections: linkage of monthly and quarterly models

Corrado, Carol A.; Greene, Mark - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 1984

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005402452