We find that the short-term deviations from long-run consumption-wealth relationship (cay) forecast stock market returns and serve as a conditioning variable in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for explaining the cross-section of stock returns for the United Kingdom and Japan. Our...

This paper describes a method of extracting the risk-neutral probability distribution of future exchange rates from option prices. In foreign exchange markets interbank option pricing conventions make possible reliable inferences about risk-neutral probability distributions with relatively...

Smooth-transition autoregressive (STAR) models have proven to be worthy competitors of Markov-switching models of regime shifts, but the assumption of a time-invariant threshold level does not seem realistic and it holds back this class of models from reaching their potential usefulness. Indeed,...

A long standing puzzle in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has been the inability of empirical work to validate it. This paper presents a new approach to estimating the CAPM, taking into account the differences between observable and expected returns for risky assets and for the market...

This paper analyzes the necessary and sufficient conditions for solving money-in-the-utility-function models when contemporaneous asset returns are uncertain. A unique solution to such models is shown to exist under certain measurability conditions. Stochastic Euler equations, whose existence is...