This paper decomposes nominal Treasury yields into expected real rates, expected inflation rates, real risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums by separately calibrating a three-factor affine term structure model to the nominal Treasury and TIPS yield curves. Although this particular...

This paper examines the first three moments of investors' expectations for the housing sector. That is, first, what do financial markets imply about expected future home prices? Second, how much confidence do investors have in their forecast? And, third, do market participants see more downside...

Affine term structure models in which the short rate follows a jump-diffusion process are difficult to solve, and the parameters of such models are hard to estimate. Without analytical answers to the partial difference differential equation (PDDE) for bond prices implied by jump-diffusion...

Recent research suggests a persistent empirical relation between U.S. monetary policy and stock returns since the mid-1980s. The findings seem questionable and incomplete, however, for at least three reasons. First, the results are sensitive to sample selection. Second, this research does not...

Some studies have argued that monetary policy affects stock market performance over monthly or quarterly horizons, which has important implications for both investors and central bankers. Previous findings, however, are not robust to the sensitivity analysis reported here. For example, division...

The consensus suggests that subdued nominal U.S. Treasury yields on balance since the onset of the global financial crisis primarily reflect exceptionally low, if not occasionally negative, term premiums as opposed to low anticipated short rates. Depressed term premiums plausibly owe to...

Previous studies suggest that trading conditions in the secondary market for nominal U.S. Treasury (UST) coupon securities embeds critical information about global financial market liquidity and the limits to arbitrage. We propose three new general measures based on deviations of observed...

Recent applications of extreme bound analysis (EBA) to stock market anomalies suggest that few variables are robust. This article extends this research and examines emerging and developed markets simultaneously. Among 15 purported anomalies, six variables – short-run lagged returns, momentum,...

The literature on momentum is vast. No previous study, however, has examined trading rules along government bond term structures. Under index-duration-neutral and long-only constraints and with low trading costs, an equally weighted average strategy across 20 look-back windows produces an...

Although “betting against beta” with government bonds (BABgov) seems profitable, questions remain. First, to what extent are BABgov profits an anomaly? Previous studies do not address routine valuation frameworks, such as term-structure models or principal components analysis. Second,...