Due to the near unit-root behavior of interest rates, the movements of individual interest-rate series are inherently difficult to forecast. In this paper, we propose an innovative way of applying dynamic term structure models to forecast interest-rate movements. Instead of directly forecasting...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the short-term interest-rate dynamics based on three different data sets and two flexible parametric specifications. The significance of nonlinearity in the short-rate drift declines with increasing maturity for the interest-rate series used in the...

We study market-timing strategies on a given portfolio to achieve a particular risk or return target. Targeting a constant risk level leads to increasing investment at better investment opportunities whereas targeting a constant expected return does the opposite. Theoretical and numerical...

Classic option pricing theory values a derivative contract via dynamic replication, and views the derivative as redundant relative to the replicating portfolio. In practice, while dynamic replication proves highly effective in drastically reducing the risk in derivative investments, the...

Accurate company valuation is the starting point of value investing and corporate decisions. This paper proposes a statistical factor model to generate company valuation comparison across a large universe. The model scales the market value of a company by its book capital to generate a...

We analyze the specifications of option pricing models based on time-changed Levy processes. We classify option pricing models based on the structure of the jump component in the underlying return process, the source of stochastic volatility, and the specification of the volatility process...

We consider the design and estimation of quadratic term structure models. We start with a list of stylized facts on interest rates and interest rate derivatives, classified into three layers: (1) general statistical properties, (2) forecasting relations, and (3) conditional dynamics. We then...

We investigate whether the same finite dimensional dynamic system spans both interest rates (the yield curve) and interest rate options (the implied volatility surface). We find that the options market exhibits factors independent of the underlying yield curve. While three common factors are...

We apply stochastic time change to Levy processes to generate a wide variety of tractable option pricing models. In particular, we prove a fundamental theorem that transforms the characteristic function of the time-changed Levy process into the Laplace transform of the stochastic time under...