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We review single-equation methods for estimating the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and then apply those methods to U.S. quarterly data for 1955?2007. Estimating the hybrid NKPC by the generalized method of moments yields stable coefficients with a large role for expected future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998174
This paper surveys estimates of New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) parameters that have been obtained by fitting fully specified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models to U.S. data. We examine various sources of identification in the context of a simple analytical model. DSGE...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998175
Recent papers have argued that one implication of globalization is that domestic inflation rates may have now become more a function of "global," rather than domestic, economic conditions, as postulated by closed-economy Phillips curves. This paper aims to assess the empirical importance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005009939
This paper estimates a structural New Keynesian model to test whether globalization has changed the behavior of U.S. macroeconomic variables. Several key coefficients in the model--such as the slopes of the Phillips and IS curves, the sensitivities of domestic inflation and output to "global"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005009941
An abstract for this article is not available
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063932
A much debated question among economists is the usefulness of the Phillips curve as a tool for forecasting inflation. This Economic Letter presents some quantitative comparisons between a Phillips curve-based inflation forecast and an alternative forecast that is constructed as a weighted moving...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490409
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490590
This Economic Letter looks at the problems with the NKPC and discusses some alternatives that are increasingly being used to think about inflation and the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490666
This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United States and conducts an extensive empirical analysis that recapitulates and clarifies this literature using a consistent data set and methodology. The literature review and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498278
Hysteresis is central to long-run unemployment movements in many countries. This essay addresses two broad issues. The first is whether there is clear evidence of hysteresis effects. To put it differently, can we reject the hypothesis that the NAIRU, and hence the long run behavior of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498290