Shocks to net migration matter for the business cycles of some countries. Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy and a structural vector autoregression, we find that migration shocks account for a considerable proportion of the variability...

We apply a suite of models to produce quasi-real-time density forecasts of Norwegian GDP and inflation, and evaluate different combination and selection methods using the Kullback-Leibler information criterion (KLIC). We use linear and logarithmic opinion pools in conjunction with various...

In this article we examine whether New Zealand having its own currency leads to higher interest rates in New Zealand when compared to Australia or the United States.

We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. Forecasts are recursively evaluated from 1999 to 2008. The performance of the models over this period is then used to derive weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that model...

Real Business Cycle (RBC) and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) methods have become essential components of the macroeconomist’s toolkit. This literature review stresses recently developed techniques for computation and inference, providing a supplement to the Romer (2006)...

In December 2009 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in conjunction with Northwestern University’s Centre for International Economics and Development (CIED), hosted a monetary policy conference to mark the 20th anniversary of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act. Passed in December 1989, the Act...

Forecast combination has become popular in central banks as a means to improve forecasts and to alleviate the risk of selecting poor models. However, if a model suite is populated with many similar models, then the weight attached to other independent models may be lower than warranted by their...

This article sets out the "stylised facts" of the last business cycle - what actually happened to the economy during the course of the cycle, and in what respects this was similar to, and different from previous New Zealand economic cycles and experiences internationally.

We evaluate the performance of an open economy DSGE-VAR model for New Zealand along both forecasting and policy dimensions. We show that forecasts froma DSGE-VAR and a "vanilla" DSGE model are competitive with, and in some dimensions superrior to, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official...

This paper introduces contributions made to a June 2011 policy forum, sponsored by the New Zealand Treasury, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Victoria University of Wellington. The forum focused on New Zealand's macroeconomic imbalances and possible policy responses. Here we provide an...