This paper studies the informational content of the slope of the yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro … outperforms all the other spreads in predicting recessions in the euro area. The result is con¯rmed when the au …-month interest rates is explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain …

short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United …-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four …

forecasting exercises. …

comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …

important for analyzing and forecasting economic activity. Since financial stress is not directly observable but is presumably …-of-sample forecasting accuracy for real GDP growth in Germany compared to a model without the indicator and other forecast benchmarks. …