A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper estimates the degree of uncertainty and asymmetry in the probability forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our...

This paper studies frictions in the euro area interbank deposit overnight market, making use of high frequency individual quote and trade data. The aim of the analysis is to determine, in a quantitative way, how efficient this market is. Besides a comprehensive descriptive analysis, the approach...

This paper explores the role of central bank capital in ensuring that central banks focus on price stability in monetary policy decisions. The paper goes beyond the existing literature on this topic by developing a simple, but comprehensive, model of the relationship between a central bank's...

Using data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we investigate the reporting practices of survey participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We find that the individual point predictions, on average, tend to be biased...

Capital adequacy regulations or quantity restrictions on bank portfolios put forward by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision have virtually become an international standard of prudential regulation. Recent proposals aim at extending this approach to market risks, in particular to foreign...

In this paper we conduct a simulation run on a sample of Italian banks where a trigger shock, a one-off event fairly large in size, spreads through the interbank network in a set-up featuring among the actors both commercial banks and the authorities. The banks deleverage to comply with a...

This paper puts forward a comprehensive framework to model medium-to-long term public debt refinancing strategies. Essentially the framework has two main building blocks. First, a large number of strategies are generated so as to determine a wide range of potential financing plans, regardless of...

This paper examines the recent behavior of sovereign interest rates in the euro area, focusing on the 10 year yield spreads relative to Germany for Italy and other euro area countries. Both previous analyses and the new evidence presented in the paper suggest that, in recent months, for several...

In recent years, banks have become increasingly aware of the credit risk borne in lending in the interbank market and they select their counterparties accordingly. They may also fear that if they come across a bad borrower, rescue plans will be skewed towards domestic creditors; moreover,...