This paper provides new evidence concerning the probability of informed trading (PIN) and the PIN-return relationship. We take measures to overcome known estimation biases and improve the quality of quarterly PIN estimates. We use the average of a firm's PIN estimates in four consecutive...

We investigate whether and how information about one stock’s future volatility is transferred to other related stocks along the supply chain. The supply chain setting offers an ideal setting to study the effect of cross-firm volatility information transfer because customers and suppliers are...

This paper shows that the cross-sectional and time series momentum in currencies, which cannot be explained by carry and dollar factors, summarize the autocorrelation of these factors. These momentum strategies long currency factors following positive factor returns and short them following...

Recent studies find that transactions volume and volatility spread of exchange-traded single-stock options predict the underlying stock’s future returns. Most of the firms with exchange-traded options have large market capitalization and are actively traded. It is a puzzle why it takes days...

China is the largest emerging market and attracts a great deal of attention from investors and researchers worldwide. The Fama-French three-factor model is the outcome of decades of research on U.S. stock returns. To what extent the three factors explain the variation in Chinese stock returns is...

Intangible capital has become an increasingly important factor for production in the knowledge economy. We use a large sample of U.S. firms and their major customers to test whether the presence of socially responsible customers can have an influence on suppliers' intangible capital investment...

This study employs a non-parametric approach to investigate the volatility risk premium in the over-the-counter currency option market. Using a large database of daily delta-neutral straddle quotes in four major currencies - the British pound, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc - we...

We propose a method to overcome a bias in the estimate of the probability of informed trading (PIN). This bias arises when the numerical maximization procedure generates corner solutions. We analyze the PIN estimates for about 80,000 stock-quarter pairs between 1993 and 2004, and observe a...

This paper establishes a causal link between the dollar exchange rate and international trade flows, employing a new instrument for the U.S. Dollar that is based on domestic U.S. housing activity (Ma and Zhang (2019)). In line with the dominant currency paradigm (Gopinath et al. (2020)), import...

This paper shows that currency momentum, which cannot be explained by carry and dollar factors, summarizes the autocorrelation of these factors. Carry and dollar factors are strongly autocorrelated and only earn significantly positive excess returns following positive factor returns. Currency...