Research has generally failed to find reliable connections between official exchange-market interventions and exchange rates that are consistent with either a monetary or a portfolio-balance theory of exchange-rate determination. Recently economists have suggested that intervention might...

Evidence that forward rates for foreign exchange are not unbiased forecasts of future spot rates suggests a time-varying risk premium. However, there is little evidence that the forecast error is related to fundamentals, although most investigations have lacked high-frequency data. In this...

This paper considers the impact of U.S. and German central bank intervention on the risk premium in forward foreign exchange markets.