The aim and scope of this paper is to isolate the effects of population ageing in the context of potential Scottish independence. Fiscal challenges are often quoted as a strong argument against independence. Demographic processes play an important role in determining future economic growth via...

Projected demographic changes in industrialized countries will reduce the share of the working-age population. Analyses based on standard OLG models predict that these changes will increase the capital- labor ratio. Hence, rates of return to capital decrease and wages increase with adverse...

We study how aggregate demographic and economic risks affect the finances of the Finnish earnings-related pension system and the different generations of the insured. As a partially funded defined-benefit system, demographic risks and asset yield risks directly affect the contributions. Our...

The study analyses the migration potential and the impact on Austria's economy that is to be expected after the lifting of access restrictions for Bulgarian and Romanian nationals as of 1 January 2014. Estimates show that in the years 2014 and 2015 net migration from the EU-2 to Austria will...

Many policy models require assumptions about future population trends. Sensitivity tests for these assumptions are normally carried out by comparing population projection variants. This paper outlines some of the conditions that variant-based sensitivity tests must meet if they are to be...

We propose a unified framework to measure the effects of different reforms of the pension system on retirement ages and macroeconomic indicators in the face of demographic change. A rich overlapping generations (OLG) model is built and endogenous retirement decisions are explicitly modeled...

The ifo Institute is Germany’s largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the most important leading indicators for gross domestic product. However, the ifo Business Survey is not solely limited to the Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of...

In dieser Studie wird zunächst der Begriff der Nachhaltigkeit bezogen auf die Rentenpolitik beleuchtet und gezeigt, dass ein Trade-off zwischen sozialer und finanzieller Nachhaltigkeit letztendlich an die alte Debatte um den vermeintlichen Trade-off zwischen Leistungsniveau und finanzieller...

National statistical offices responsible for population projections should regularly evaluate their work. Norway is currently considering changing the way fertility is projected. To establish a solid basis for deciding the way forward, this paper describes the different ways various European...