1. Executive Summary -- 2. Literature Review -- 3. Theoretical Framework and Stylized Facts -- 4. KGEMM Methodology -- 5. Database -- 6. A Brief History and Structure of KGEMM -- 7. KGEMM Behavioral Equations and Identities -- 8. KGEMM Simulations.

The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974-1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are...

We show that systematic forecast errors reveal that the Fed is "surprised" by real and inflationary cycles. The Fed knows the state of the economy for the current quarter, but cannot predict it one-quarter ahead.

Recent research has documented that the Federal Reserve produces systematic errors in forecasting inflation, real GDP growth, and the unemployment rate, even though these forecasts are unbiased. We show that these systematic errors reveal that the Fed is “surprised” by real and inflationary...