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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005406627
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647230
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004990381
This paper surveys the literature on the linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes. It focuses on three major questions. First, what are the basic theoretical linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes? Second, what is the empirical evidence supporting these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060200
run component of consumption growth process is proxied by a news based index that is created using a random forest … algorithm. This news index is shown to predict aggregate long term consumption growth with an R-square of 57% and is robust to … model that arises due to measurement error in consumption data and show that this bias term is non-zero. Using a three pass …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011819706
methodologies for evaluating consumption-based models, with an emphasis on method-of-moments estimators. Finally, the chapter offers …The last 15 years has brought forth an explosion of research on consumption-based asset pricing as a leading contender … for explaining aggregate stock market behavior. This research has propelled further interest in consumption-based asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128099
During the Great Recession, the collapse of consumption across the U.S. varied greatly but systematically with house …-price declines. We find that financial distress among U.S. households amplified the sensitivity of consumption to house-price shocks …-estimated-dynamic model to measure the financial distress channel, we find that these two facts amplify the aggregate drop in consumption by 7 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012137091
This paper surveys the literature on the linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes. It focuses on three major questions. First, what are the basic theoretical linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes? Second, what is the empirical evidence supporting these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011761064
run component of consumption growth process is proxied by a news based index that is created using a random forest … algorithm. This news index is shown to predict aggregate long term consumption growth with an R-square of 57% and is robust to … model that arises due to measurement error in consumption data and show that this bias term is non-zero. Using a three pass …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011819242
modelling framework for analysing the household flow of funds jointly with consumption.  The consumption function incorporates … consumption and housing purchase decisions jointly with portfolio decisions, there is much to be gained in modelling a household … decline in US saving rate, as well as of the household financial accelerator.  Moreover, the models discussed in this paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004428