This study examines the causes of the East Asian financial crisis and presents an early warning system based on data from Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, and Philippines during 1982:1–1998:1 through a panel probit regression model using 20 monthly macroeconomic and financial sector...

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...

This paper investigates the empirical saving-investment relationships for Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana over the period 1960-1998, using a Markov Switching VAR model. We find regime-dependent causality from saving to investment in Cote d'Ivoire but not in Ghana. In terms of Feldstein and Horioka...

his article investigates the impact of education on economic growth in Guatemala for the 1951-2002 period. An error-correction model shows that a better-educated labor force has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. A growth-accounting framework demonstrates that human capital...

We analyze the main positive effects of human capital on economic development, having into account direct and indirect relationships between the educational level of population and real Gdp per inhabitant through the production function, demographic evolution, industrial development, foreign...

This paper investigates the impact of human capital on economic growth in Guatemala through the application of an error-correction methodology. Two channels are analyzed, by which human capital is expected to influence growth. A better-educated labor force appears to have a positive and...

This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyse the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the...

This paper examines the empirical relationships between exports growth and economic performance for western Africa countries using a non-linear Markov Switching VAR model in contrast with previous linear time series studies. We could not find causality from exports to GDP and vice versa in...

This article analyzes the evolution of real Gross Domestic Product per head in Latin American Countries for the period 2000-2005 with special focus on the role of industry, foreign trade, and foreign direct investment. We estimate some econometric models and find that these variables have not...

We investigate the inflation rate in Colombia in terms of excess money, excess demand, deviations from PPP, and wage inflation. In contrast to previous results for a group of industrial economias, we find that domestic factors are a far more powerful influence on inflation than are external...