This study examines the causes of the East Asian financial crisis and presents an early warning system based on data from Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, and Philippines during 1982:1–1998:1 through a panel probit regression model using 20 monthly macroeconomic and financial sector...

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...

This paper examines the determinants of economic growth in Guatemala, with a particular focus on schooling. Results based on the error-correction methodology show a better educated labour force has a positive and significant impact on economic growth during 1951-2002. Consistent with micro...

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of economic policy and structural change on gender inequality in employment and economic opportunities for a set of 18 Latin American countries over the time period 1990-2010. We use three different methodologies to explore this question:...

This paper belongs to my research program on violence and terrorism started in 1993, as a consequence of the growing concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s. After 14 years of research, particularly after developing a model of...

This paper examines the empirical relationships between exports growth and economic performance for western Africa countries using a non-linear Markov Switching VAR model in contrast with previous linear time series studies. We could not find causality from exports to GDP and vice versa in...

This paper investigates the empirical saving-investment relationships for Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana over the period 1960–1998, using a Markov Switching VAR model. We find regime-dependent causality from saving to investment in Côte d’Ivoire but not in Ghana. In terms of Feldstein and...

This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyse the monetary policy reactionfunction of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function isasymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observedinflation and the inflation...

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of economic policy and structural change on gender inequality in employment and economic opportunities for a set of 18 Latin American countries over the time period 1990-2010. We use three different methodologies to explore this question:...