We introduce a new class of distributions to model directional data, based on hyperspherical log-splines. The class is very flexible and can be used to model data that exhibits features that cannot be accommodated by typical parametric distributions, such as asymmetries and multimodality. The...

In this paper we use smooth transition vector error-correction models (STVECMs) in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the unemployment rates of the four non-Euro G-7 countries, the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Japan. For the U.S., pooled forecasts constructed by taking the median...

Many topics of interest to economists involve the passage of time. How long does a typical spell of unemployment last? Has the time between births increased in recent years as women's relative earnings increased? Answers to these questions are desired both for the purpose of sorting out various...

This paper constructs the probability space underlying the random variable of any time dependent econometric specification. The construction links concrete economic activity, both perceived and recorded, and econometric formulations. Furthermore, it is argued that the probability events...

Inferences about the presence or absence of threshold type nonlinearities in TAR models are conducted within models whose lag length has been estimated in a preliminary stage. Typically the null hypothesis of linearity is then tested against a threshold alternative on which the estimated lag...

This paper focuses the development of the diagnostics for the perturbations of case-weights and explanatory variables (one or more) in a linear logistic regression model. The effect of specific perturbation scheme on the estimation of parameters is also assessed. In addition, the interpretation...

The influence of peer behavior on an individual's choices has received renewed interest in recent years. However, accurate measures of this influence are difficult to obtain. Standard reduced-form methods lead to upwardly biased estimates due to simultaneity, common shocks, and nonrandom peer...

This paper analyses the effect of labour taxes on Euro area unemployment. Empirical estimates obtained so far can be criticised as being spurious because the regressions generally lack non-measurable variables constituting the reservation wage that can possibly be non stationary. Here we...

This study examines the impact of telecommuting on passenger vehicle- miles traveled (VMT) through a multivariate time series analysis of aggregate nationwide data spanning 1966-1999 for all variables except telecommuting, and 1988-1998 for telecommuting. The analysis was conducted in two...