This paper empirically evaluates the treatment effect of de facto pegged regimes on the occurrence of currency crises. To estimate the treatment effect of pegged regimes properly, we must carefully control for the self-selection problem of regime adoption because a country's exchange rate regime...

This study tests the balance sheet approach of “third-generation” explanations of external crises in emerging markets, looking in particular at the 1997–98 Asian crisis. Using unique datasets, we find that corporate sector balance sheets, macroeconomic balance sheets, and the legal...

We apply extreme value theory to assess the tail dependence between three currency crisis measures and 18 economic indicators commonly used for predicting crises. In our pooled sample of 46 countries in the period 1974–2008, we find that nearly all pairs of variables are asymptotically...

This paper evaluates the treatment effect of consistent pegs (i.e., a policy in which countries actually adopt announced pegged regimes) on the occurrence of currency crises to examine whether consistent pegs are indeed more prone to currency crises than other regimes. Using matching estimators...

What determines the direction of spread of currency crises? We examine data on waves of currency crises in 1992, 1994, 1997, and 1998 to evaluate several hypotheses on the determinants of contagion. We simultaneously consider trade competition, financial links, and institutional similarity to...

The aim of this thesis is to analyze, from an empirical point of view, both the different varieties of economic and financial crises (typological analysis) and the context’s characteristics, which could be associated with a likely occurrence of such events. Consequently, we analyze both: years...

In case of speculative attacks, the central banks' decisions to intervene or not to intervene seem to play an important role for the economic costs of currency crises. The central bank can either abstain from intervening or start an intervention, which in turn can be successful or unsuccessful....

We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (a) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic...

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not...

Major changes in the Norwegian exchange rate have often coincided with large fluctuations in the price of crude oil. Previous empirical studies have however suggested a weak and ambiguous relation between the oil price and the exchange rate. In contrast to these studies, this paper explores the...