We construct a new measure of monetary policy surprise based on a natural language processing algorithm designed to capture contextual nuances in FOMC statements. Specifically we exploit cross-sectional variations across alternative FOMC statements to identify the statement's tone, and compare...

With the concept of trend inflation now widely understood as to be important as a measure of the public's perception of the inflation goal of the central bank and important to the accuracy of longer-term inflation forecasts, this paper uses Bayesian methods to assess alternative models of trend...

South Korea raised the nation-wide minimum wage substantially over the past two years (2018 and 2019), and the minimum wage rose from 53 percent of the median wage to 63 percent. While the minimum wage has been increasing steadily over the decades, the rapid pace was largely unexpected and...

A purported benefit of state-based forward guidance is that the private sector adjusts the expected stance of policy without further policymaker communications. This assumes a shared understanding of how policymakers are interpreting the data and that policymakers are consistent in their...

Empirical evidence shows that worker flows in the U.S. labor market are very large. Previous studies have mainly focused on documenting and modeling worker flows between employment and unemployment only. However, these studies ignore other important labor flows including movements in and out of...