During the 1990s, Japan began experiencing demographic changes that are larger and more rapid than in other OECD countries. These demographic changes will become even more pronounced in future years. We are interested in understanding the role of lower fertility rates and aging for the evolution...

Governments may be unable to sustain large budget deficits indefinitely. Investors may impose limits on the amount of government debt-relative to gross national product (GNP)-they are willing to hold and thus limit the size of the deficit a government can sustain. The size of sustainable nominal...

This paper quantifies the role of alternative shocks in accounting for the recent declines in Japanese saving rates and interest rates and provides some projections about their future course. We consider four distinct sources of variation in saving rates and real interest rates: changes in...

In this paper we examine the role of social security in an economy populated by overlapping generations of individuals with time-inconsistent preferences who face mortality risk, individual income risk, and borrowing constraints. We find that unfunded social security lowers the capital stock,...

Japan is in the midst of a demographic transition that is both rapid and large by international standards. As recently as 1990, Japan had the youngest population among the Group of 6 large, developed countries. However, the combined effects of aging of the baby boomer generation and low...

Japan is in the midst of a demographic transition that is larger and more rapid than other OECD countries. We are interested in understanding the role of lower fertility rates and aging for the evolution of Japan's national saving rate. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze...