Standard exchange rate models perform poorly in out-of-sample forecasting when compared to the random walk model. We posit part of the poor performance of these models may be due to omission of political factors. We test this hypothesis by including political variables that capture...

A number of central banks use (published or unpublished) forecasts of goal variables as key ingredients in their decisions for instrument settings. This use of forecasts is modelled as a particular form of objective with the minimization of which the central bank is charged. We use an estimated...

This paper tests the effects of central bank intervention on the ex ante volatility of $/DM and $/Yen exchange rates. In contrast to previous research which employed GARCH estimates of conditional volatility, we estimate ex ante volatility using the implied volatilities of currency options...

Over the past twenty years, the monetary aggregates used by the Federal Reserve as indicators of economic activity and inflation have changed several times. Each of the changes in the measures of money was sparked by a breakdown in the fit of empirical money demand functions. The Federal...

Illegal immigration and border enforcement in the United States have increased concomitantly for over thirty years. One interpretation is that U.S. border policies have been ineffective. We offer an alternative view, extending the current immigration-enforcement literature by incorporating both...

I study a model of multiple currencies in which sellers can choose the currency they will accept. I provide conditions that are necessary and sufficient to avoid indeterminacy of the exchange rate. Under these assumptions, all stable equilibria have the property that all sellers in the same...

This paper uses annual data on 450 SIC four-digit manufacturing industries obtained from the NBER Manufacturing Productivity Database to examine how manufacturing industries respond to unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate. The analysis proceeds in three stages. First, industry price...

This study models the bid-ask spread in financial markets as a function of asset price variability and order flow. The market-maker is characterized as passively accepting orders to buy and to sell a security at the market's prevailing price (plus or minus half the bid-ask spread). The bid-ask...