Using US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specificcharacteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably overtime. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation ispartially...

This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>Journal of Empirical Finance</I> (2009). Vol. 16, issue 1, pages 42-54.<P> We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro-economic fundamentals in an intensity-based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from...</p></i>

In the past decades several features of U.S. unemployment dynamics have been investigated empirically. The original focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate...

In business cycle research, smoothing data is an essential step in that it can influence the extent to which model-generated moments stand up to their empirical counterparts. To demonstrate this idea, we compare the results of McDermott’s (1997) modified HP-filter with the conventional...

The bargaining power of international banks is currently still very high as compared to what it was at the time of the Bretton Woods conference. As a consequence, systemic financial crises are likely to remain recurrent phenomena with large effects on macroeconomic aggregates. Mainstream...

Several economic data series of Liechtenstein are backwardly estimated in order to achieve consistent historic time series. The generated series consist for instance of the national income for the years 1954 to 1992 (by regressive inter- and retropolation with indicators) and 1993 to 1997 (by...

This paper explores the dynamic behavior of investment and hiring within a unified framework, stressing their mutual dependence and placing the emphasis on their joint, forward-looking behavior. Using structural estimation in aggregate, private sector U.S. data, it shows that the model, which...

Economic theory suggests that the degree of cyclical synchronisation is related to the degree of economic integration and structural similarity between countries. In gauging changes in the synchronisation of countries’ business cycles and the underlying driving factors, it is important to...

There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the impacts of cross border business cycle fluctuations on metropolitan housing markets located near international boundaries. This study examines the impacts of economic conditions in Mexico on sales of existing single-family houses in...

Many countries have large employment shares in micro and small firms that have limited access to formal financing and therefore rely on input credit. Such countries are mainly emerging and developing economies, whose business cycle dynamics are increasingly important for the global economy in...