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Beauchemin, Kenneth - In: Economic Commentary (2010) Sep

There has been much talk about a disappointing recovery in the wake of the Great Recession—that this time it is much slower. Comparing features of this recovery to past recoveries casts some doubt on that view. The comparison is made using a scaled-down version of the sophisticated and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008643754

Unemployment after the recession: a new natural rate?

Tasci, Murat; Zaman, Saeed - In: Economic Commentary (2010) Sep

The past recession has hit the labor market especially hard, and economists are wondering whether some fundamentals of the market have changed because of that blow. Many are suggesting that the natural rate of long-term unemployment—the level of unemployment an economy can’t go below—has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008643755

Predicting Severe Simultaneous Recessions Using Yield Spreads as Leading Indicators

Christiansen, Charlotte - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2011

Severe simultaneous recessions are de?ned to occur when at least half of the countries under investigation (Australia … that extend upon stylized facts for US recessions. One, are the occurrences of simultaneous recessions predictable? Two …, does the yield spread predict future occurrences of simultaneous recessions? I use the indicator for severe simultaneous …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009371455