A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a...

Two distinguished New Zealanders pioneered some of the foundations of modern econometrics. Alec Aitken, one of the most famous and well-documented mental arithmeticians of all time, contributed the matrix formulation and projection geometry of linear regression, generalized least squares (GLS)...

Time series models are often fitted to the data without preliminary checks for stability of the mean and variance, conditions that may not hold in much economic and financial data, particularly over long periods. Ignoring such shifts may result in fitting models with spurious dynamics that lead...

A model of financial asset price determination is proposed that incorporates flat trading features into an e¡é cient price process. The model involves the superposition of a Brownian semimartin- gale process for the efficient price and a Bernoulli process that determines the extent of flat...

A recursive regression methodology is used to analyze the bubble characteristics of various fi- nancial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior and consistent dating of their origination and collapse. Seven relevant financial...

A new methodology is proposed to estimate theoretical prices of financial contin- gent claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature, the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but...