money. Such fluctuations are also associated with varying degrees of uncertainty. Shannon's derivations of spectral entropy … overall economy. Shannon's concept of spectral entropy can also be exploited to quantify the amount of uncertainty that would …'s derivation of entropy which follows Boltzmann's lead, can be applied to price and rate fluctuations, thus unraveling a higher …

Analyzing inflation as a change in the value of a currency, rather than changes in prices of goods and services …, provides perspective on three fundamental sources of inflation.A Money Value Formula produces a significant statistical fit … with forward long-term inflation rates using long lags of monetary aggregates with inflation variability due almost …

explain virtually all variation of future long-term inflation, enabling significantly more accurate inflation forecasts than … inflation in all 18 countries surveyed. Over 94% of the variation of long-term inflation is explained in 13 of the 18 countries … sample forecasts for U.S. inflation are 50% more accurate (smaller error) than consensus long-term forecasts and 10-20% more …

Low and unresponsive inflation has been termed a “puzzle.” The paper describes a formula for which these conditions … variability of forward long-term inflation. Its U.S. inflation forecasts are comparable to recognized leaders in accuracy with … potential applicability to international economies as well.Inflation Elasticity, the responsiveness of inflation to monetary …

The paper examines a wide variety of models forecasting inflation, consumer survey, professional survey, judgmental … mark a return to inflation below central bank targets, but there is no visibility for timing of this development …

Two extraordinary inflation surprises of the last generation were the longstanding inflation shortfall from central … bank targets and now the pandemic inflationary.Inflation shortfalls can be attributed to characteristics of monetary … inflation. Compounding this problem is a base level of inflation from non-monetary causes, population growth and the natural …

Is inflation a monetary phenomenon? In the decades since the influential work of Milton Friedman, the great moderation … structural change in the underlying relationship between money growth and inflation, there is limited understanding as to why … important impact on the relationship between excess money growth and inflation. Estimating these effects using a long run sample …

Low and unresponsive inflation has been termed a “puzzle.”. The paper combines a monetary model and a growth model to … explain low inflation and project its continued decline.The monetary model forecast in 2016 central banks would fail to reach … 2% targets, which has been true. The model explains inflation as changes of the unit value of a currency, a function of …

Four major inflation surprises mark the modern economic era: diminished response of inflation to stimulus since the … 1990’s, increasing financial bubble cycles, resilience of inflation during the Great Financial Crisis, and, of course, the … pandemic inflation.To explain these surprises, this paper presents a new framework for analyzing inflation as driven by three …