This paper reports the results of a series of experiments designed to test whether and to what extent individuals succumb to the conjunction fallacy. Using an experimental design of Tversky and Kahneman (1983), it finds that given mild incentives, the proportion of individuals who violate the...

This article generalizes Savage's theory to include event-dependent preferences. The state space is partitioned into finitely many events. The induced.preferences over consequences are assumed independent of the underlying states within, but not across, these events. This results in an...

In the framework of subjective expected utility theory we develop two distinct procedures for the elicitation of a person's subjective probabilities when the initial endowment is random and unobservable. Procedures of the first kind rely on the boundedness of the utility function to elicit the...