This paper presents a simple forecasting technique for variance covariance matrices. It relies significantly on the contribution of Chiriac and Voev (2010) who propose to forecast elements of the Cholesky decomposition which recombine to form a positive definite forecast for the variance...

There is much literature that deals with modeling and forecasting asset return volatility. However, much of this research does not attempt to explain variations in the level of volatility. Movements in volatility are often linked to trading volume or frequency, as a reflection of underlying...

The forecasting of variance-covariance matrices is an important issue. In recent years an increasing body of literature has focused on multivariate models to forecast this quantity. This paper develops a nonparametric technique for generating multivariate volatility forecasts from a weighted...

This paper describes a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of Heston's model of stochastic volatility using data on an underlying market index and the prices of options written on that index. Parameters of the physical measure (associated with the index) and the parameters of...

Many approaches have been proposed for estimating stochastic volatility (SV) models, a number of which are filtering methods. While non-linear filtering methods are superior to linear approaches, non-linear filtering methods have not gained a wide acceptance in the econometrics literature due to...

Maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of stochastic differential equations are consistent and asymptotically efficient, but unfortunately difficult to obtain if a closed form expression for the transitional probability density function of the process is not available. As a result, a...

This paper describes a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of Heston's model of stochastic volatility using data on an underlying market index and the prices of options written on that index. Parameters of the physical measure (associated with the index) and the parameters of...

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represent a significant source of risk to retailers. Electricity markets are often structured so as to allow retailers to purchase at an unregulated spot price but then sell to consumers at a heavily regulated price. As such,...

This paper builds an econometric model of retail gas competition to explain the pricing decisions of retail outlets in terms of vertical management structures, input costs and the characteristics of the local market they operate within. The model is estimated using price data from retail outlets...

The unemployment rate in Australia is modelled as an asymmetric and nonlinear function of aggregate demand, productivity, real interest rates, the replacement ratio and the real exchange rate. If changes in unemployment are big, the management of of demand, real interest rates and the...