During periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes, therefore, is important for risk management. This paper builds a...

Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (forthcoming) report for a sample of 129 shootouts from various seasons in ten different competitions that teams kicking first in soccer penalty shootouts win significantly more often than teams kicking second. Collecting data for the entire history of six major...

Unlike the existing literature on sports betting, which concentrates on arbitrage within a single market, this paper examines inter-market arbitrage by searching for arbitrage opportunities through combining bets at the bookmaker and the exchange market. Using the posted odds of eight different...

The paper looks at the development of macroeconometric models over the past sixty years. In particular those that have been used for analysing policy options. We argue that there have been four generations of these. Each generation has evolved new features that have been partly drawn from the...

This paper considers VAR/VECM models for variables exhibiting cointegration and common features in the transitory components. While the presence of cointegration reduces the rank of the long-run multiplier matrix, other types of common features lead to rank reduction in the short-run dynamics....

A well developed literature exists in relation to modeling and forecasting asset return volatility. Much of this relate to the development of time series models of volatility. This paper proposes an alternative method for forecasting volatility that does not involve such a model. Under this...

The paper looks at the role of inventories in U.S. business cycles and fluctuations. It concentrates upon the goods producing sector and constructs a model that features both input and output inventories. A range of shocks are present in the model, including sales, technology and inventory cost...

De Long and Summers (1991) began a literature examining the impact of equipment investment on growth. In this paper we examine such a relationship for developing countries by considering imports of equipment from advanced countries as our measure of equipment investment for a sample of 55...

Credence goods markets are characterized by asymmetric information between sellers and consumers that may give rise to inefficiencies, such as under- and overtreatment or market break-down. We study in a large experiment with 936 participants the determinants for efficiency in credence goods...

In this paper I show that discretionary policymaking can be superior to timeless perspective policymaking and identify model features that make this outcome more likely. Developing a measure of conditional loss that treats the auxiliary state variables that characterize the timeless perspective...