Model uncertainty has the potential to change importantly how monetary policy should be conducted, making it an issue that central banks cannot ignore. In this paper, I use a standard new Keynesian business cycle model to analyze the behavior of a central bank that conducts policy with...

This paper presents a GARCH type volatility model with a time-varying unconditional volatility which is a function of macroeconomic information. It is an extension of the SPLINE GARCH model proposed by Engle and Rangel (2005). The advantage of the model proposed in this paper is that the...

There is a long history of research into the impact of trading activity and information on financial market volatility. Based on 10 years of unique data on news items relating to gold and crude oil broadcast over the Reuters network, this study has two objectives. It investigates the impact of...

Modeling and forecasting realized volatility is of paramount importance. Previous studies have examined the role of both the continuous and jump components of volatility in forecasting. This paper considers how to use index level jumps and cojumps across index constituents for forecasting index...

The importance of modelling correlation has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management with large dimensional multivariate problems are increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating a number of...

Understanding the dynamics of volatility and correlation is a crucially important issue. The literature has developed rapidly in recent years with more sophisticated estimates of volatility, and its associated jump and diffusion components. Previous work has found that jumps at an index level...

This paper extends Merton's structural credit risk model to account for the fact that the firm's asset volatility follows a stochastic process. With the presence of stochastic volatility, the transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method of Duan (1994, 2000) can no longer be...

Since the introduction of volatility derivatives, there has been growing interest in option implied volatility (IV). Many studies have examined informational content, and or forecast accuracy of IV, however there is relatively less work on directly modeling and forecasting IV. This paper uses a...

Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss functions to discriminate between a competing set of forecasting models which are subsequently applied in...